Newsletter summary
The oil market fluctuated and rose in AprilPongarcadeRapeseed oil rose slightlyPongarcadePalm oil fell sharply. Sowing American beans smoothly, soybean production in Argentina is expected to be lowered, and torrential rains in Brazil affect the harvest. Domestic soybean supply is sufficient, soybean oil inventory is expected to increase, palm oil supply and demand data is critical, rapeseed oil production is expected to be reduced by frost, import demand is expected to increase. [policy neutral]
Text of news flash
[oil market volatility rapeseed oil price strong] in April, oil market price fluctuations intensified, different varieties showed a trend of differentiation. Rapeseed oil rose slightly, but palm oil prices fell sharply. Affected by the arrival of the yield-increasing season and excessive early increases, the spot price of palm oil is significantly higher than that of soybean oil and rapeseed oil, and consumer demand has been frustrated. On the other hand, some rapeseed producing areas in the European Union experienced late spring cold during flowering, leading to a strong rebound in rapeseed oil prices and recovering the decline in the first ten days.
[the sowing time of American beans is good and the harvest of Argentine soybeans is slow] the weather conditions of sowing season of sowing in the United States are good, and the quarterly weather forecast of NOAA shows that the probability of abnormal is low. According to the USDA report, as of April 28th, the soybean planting rate had reached 18%, a rapid progress. However, the progress of soybean harvest in Argentina is only 60%, the slowest in eight years, and the harvest is difficult due to continuous rainfall. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange expects Argentine soybean production to decline. At the same time, torrential rains in Rio Grande do Sul affected soybean harvesting, and CBOT soybean futures continued to rebound affected by a weaker dollar and torrential rains in Brazil.
[adequate domestic soybean supply is expected to increase] with the gradual arrival of Brazilian soybeans in Hong Kong, the domestic soybean supply increases. Soybeans are expected to arrive at 9.57 million tons in April and 11.46 million tons in May, according to mysteel data. As a result, the opening rate of oil plants is relatively high in April, and soybean oil stocks are expected to increase. However, during the May Day holiday, some oil factories shut down and the crushing capacity may be reduced. Domestic demand is general, May Day stock enthusiasm is not high, the basis is expected to be weak, prices may show a weak operation.
[Indonesia raises May Palm Oil reference Price Malaysia Palm Oil inventory is expected to decrease] Indonesia raised May Palm Oil reference Price to 877 per ton.Pongarcade.28 US dollars, reflecting the optimism of the producing areas about the market outlook. Malaysia has officially entered the production-increasing season, but the rate of growth is limited. SPPOMA data show that Malaysian palm oil production increased by 3% in April compared with the previous month.Pongarcade.76%. Malaysian palm oil stocks are expected to be 1.63 million tonnes in April, down 4.7 per cent from March, according to a Bloomberg survey. Geopolitical conflicts have eased, crude oil prices have adjusted back, and horse palm prices have weakened synchronously. There is no obvious bright spot in the domestic palm oil market demand, and the follow-up attention will focus on the supply side.
[rapeseed oil price is affected by many factors EU rapeseed frost problem attracts attention] ICE rapeseed futures continue to rise under the strong influence of US beans. EU rapeseed suffered frost, especially in the main producing areas such as southern Germany, western France and Poland, which may have a certain impact on rapeseed yield. Oil world data show that the EU rapeseed production forecast will be lowered in 2024, and the global rapeseed supply and demand pattern has attracted attention. Domestic rapeseed imports reached 376400 tons in March, an increase of 92900 tons compared with the previous month. Rapeseed supply and demand may improve after September, so we should pay attention to the impact of weather in Europe and Canada on rapeseed production.
[the market strategy maintains neutral risk factors are limited] the current market strategy remains neutral, and the risk factors are relatively limited. Investors need to pay close attention to market developments and make prudent decisions.
