Source: oil market blueberry
[20240522] Polyester Weekly: PTA&MEG: after the bottom reboundedBaccaratcrystalballPay attention to the macro direction
Summary of PTA's viewpoints
Core point of view: neutral PTA supply is overhauled as planned, demand is reduced, the balance is maintained in May, but the margin is expected to weaken, there may be a small accumulation of pressure in June, the current PTA itself is not contradictory, the PX contradiction is alleviated, pay attention to crude oil and PX drive.
Monthly difference: neutral fundamentals are not contradictory, and there is pressure to cancel warehouse receipts in September.
Spot: neutral PTA spot market negotiation atmosphere is general, the spot basis is strong, a small number of polyester factories to buy June supply. The mainstream spot basis is traded at 09-10, and the price negotiation range is around 5915-5930.
Device changes: neutral PTA5 monthly part of the device maintenance restart, Jiaxing Petrochemical, Hengli Huizhou, Honggang restart, new material maintenance to early June, Weilian maintenance. Maintenance is planned to decline in June, and Hanbang may be willing to restart.
Downstream demand: neutral Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving has entered the seasonal off-season, polyester filament boiler transformation + production reduction, load reduction, May-June assessment 89%, 88%.
Balance of supply and demand: neutral May is expected to maintain depots, June or small accumulation.
Processing profit: neutral PXN center of gravity rises by $350,250-300 PTA spot processing fee. PTA09 disk processing fee is compressed and slightly repaired.
Summary of PX's viewpoints
Core point of view: neutral PX maintenance accidents have increased, the balance has slightly improved, short-term bad relief, maintenance accidents increased, pay attention to the restart progress of PTA stock devices, gasoline gradually entered the seasonal peak season, short-term expected interval shock, there is not much space below.
Monthly difference: neutral PX monthly difference stabilized after strengthening.
Spot: neutral PX physical negotiation activity increased, the price center of gravity rose.
Device changes: accidental overhaul at the neutral supply side has increased. Zhejiang Sinopec restructuring problem PX negative expected two weeks, Fuhua disproportionation impact PX line expected to overhaul 4 weeks, Fuhai overhaul.
Import: neutral overseas equipment, South Korea SKGC, Japan light to continue maintenance, India Reliance slightly negative. At present, the US-Asia arbitrage window is closed, and domestic imports may pick up in the future.
Downstream demand: neutral PTA planned maintenance is being realized, PX demand remains stable. Follow the progress of Hanbang restart in June.
Supply and demand balance: cautiously strong domestic supply overhaul, the balance is expected to continue to improve from May to June.
Processing profit: neutral PXN stabilized and rebounded to $350, oil regulation support is limited, and there is little space under PXN gradually entering the peak season.
Summary of views on Ethylene Glycol
Core point of view: neutral ethylene glycol port can pick up goods, inventory is not high, domestic supply maintenance has been extended, polyester production has been reduced, the balance between May and June is still tight, short-term attention is low and many opportunities, the upper space is limited.
Monthly difference: the neutral port goes to the warehouse, and the base monthly difference is slightly improved.
Spot: neutral MEG internal market negotiations in general. The spot basis difference this week and next week is near the 09 contract discount of 35-41 yuan / ton, and the negotiation is 4480-4486 yuan / ton.
Plant changes: cautious overhaul of ethylene glycol coal increased, Zhejiang Sinopec restart slightly delayed, Fuling stopped for a short week; Qianxi Coal Chemical Industry, Zhongkun restart. Weihua maintenance at the beginning of the month, extended stop for a week, Tongliao, Jianyuan stop after restart, Yongcheng maintenance is expected to restart at the end of the month.
Import: neutral overseas devices, Rakuten parking in the United States for a week, Saudi devices have been reduced recently. Imports are estimated to be 55-580000 tons from May to June.
Downstream demand: neutral weaving seasonal off-season, polyester production reduction, May and June temporary assessment of 89%, 88%. Picking up the goods has been improved.
Supply and demand balance: cautiously strong to maintain the depot in May, oil plant overhaul extended in June, the balance is expected to go to the warehouse slightly.
Processing profits: neutral with rising prices, profits slightly repaired, oil-based losses, coal-based micro-profits.
Gradually entering the seasonal off-season, weaving polyester has a negative effect.
Weaving is basically stable
Loom printing and dyeing load stable slightly weaker, followed by a slight weakening, weaving started to maintain, knitting slightly reduced production. As of May 17, the operating rate of texturing and looms was 93% (- 1%), 77% (- 1%), and 85% (- 2%). The market is gradually entering the seasonal off-season, and the downstream performance is slightly weaker.
Polyester load drops, profit performance is mediocre
Polyester operating rate continues to decline, finished product inventory is high and stable, polyester profits are slightly compressed.
The production of filament factory has been reduced obviously, and the polyester load has dropped to 88.Baccaratcrystalball.5%, gradually entering the off-season, large polyester manufacturers take the initiative to reduce production to reduce supply pressure, the current polyester inventory is relatively high, cash flow profits are further compressed. Short-term load is expected to remain stable, before inventory decreases significantly, load is expected to maintain, pay attention to the promotion at the end of the month.
Polyester inventory rebounded slightly
Polyester inventory steadily rebounded slightly, as of the 17th POY, DTY, FDY, staple fiberBaccaratcrystalballInventory of 28%Baccaratcrystalball.3, 30.5, 22.5, 10.3 days. After the festival downstream to rigid demand procurement, inventory has declined, last weekend, this Monday polyester factory promotion, production and sales volume. The current polyester inventory pressure may be alleviated, pay attention to the downstream stock situation at the end of the month.
Further compression of polyester cash flow
Raw materials rose, polyester factories promoted, and profits were further compressed. The profit and loss of filament is obviously enlarged; the profit and loss of staple fiber is balanced, and the profit of bottle chips is maintained at a loss.
Polyester start-up evaluation
Polyester load high callback, post-festival filament (boiler revamping + production reduction) and bottle chip load decreased, as of May 17 polyester operating rate of about 88.5%, May load assessment of 89% (- 0.5%), June provisional estimate of 88% (- 2%).
PTA planned maintenance, but there are not many follow-up maintenance plans.
PTA is under planned maintenance.
PTA plant dynamic, Hengli Huizhou, Jiaxing petrochemical maintenance completed restart, Yisheng new material 5.16 maintenance is expected to restart in early June. Honggang Sinopec plans to restart the overhaul on May 20, and Fuhaichuang may be reduced to 50% due to the influence of raw materials. Hengliang and Weilian continue to overhaul, and the new equipment and equipment return to full capacity.
The overhaul volume is not low in May, and Hanbang and Pengwei may have restart progress in June. The planned maintenance announced in June is not high, so we should pay attention to whether the maintenance of mainstream suppliers is on the ground.
PTA inventory continues to decline
According to Zhongpu, as of May 17, PTA social inventory (except credit warehouse receipts) reached 2.405 million tons, down 81000 tons from last week. With the continuous landing of plant maintenance, PTA inventory is gradually declining. Negotiable inventory decreased significantly, the total inventory is still high in the same period, and the willingness of PTA warehouse receipt to receive goods is not good.
PTA balance sheet
PTA supply is overhauled as planned, demand is reduced, the balance is maintained in May, but the margin is expected to weaken, and there may be a slight accumulation of warehouse pressure in June. At present, the contradiction of PTA itself is not big, the contradiction of PX is alleviated, and focus on crude oil and PX drive.
Supply side, PTA plant maintenance concentration, Jiaxing Petrochemical, Hengli Huizhou, Honggang restart, new material maintenance to early June, Weilian maintenance. There are not many overhauls planned in June, and Hanbang may be willing to restart. On the demand side, the weaving end ring ratio is slightly weaker, and as of the 17th, the operating rates of stretching, looms, printing and dyeing have been maintained at 93%, 77% and 85%. Polyester boiler retrofit superimposed combined production reduction, the load decreased significantly to 88.5%, the expected load decreased, the load was evaluated by 89% in May and 88% in June.
PTA balance sheet, polyester production reduction, slightly going to the warehouse in May, planned maintenance reduction from June, expected to be a small accumulation of storage, PTA itself is not in contradiction with its fundamentals, pay attention to the impact of crude oil and PX. PX is concerned about the restart of Hanbang, and the inventory pressure of PX port decreases after the restart.
VSPTA price of net position of some seats in PTA
The vacancy positions of some foreign-controlled futures companies decreased slightly.
PX stabilizes
American gasoline stays small and goes to storage.
Gasoline stocks in the United States have been slightly removed, gasoline cracking price spreads and octane numbers remain stable.
At present, it is about to enter the seasonal peak season of gasoline, pay attention to the changes of EIA gasoline inventory, the current fuel transfer support is limited.
The economy of oil regulation is OK.
At present, the economy and performance of oil regulation in North America is good, which is better than that in Asia, and the economy of disproportionation is OK. Disproportionation devices have been restarted in North America.
The Meiya price difference of aromatics is weak.
The US-Asia arbitrage spread is weak, toluene sub-price difference shrinks to US $190, xylene shrinks to US $142, South Korea exports high aromatics to the United States from March to April, North American fuel stocks are relatively sufficient, the US-Asia arbitrage window is basically closed, and the drive for oil regulation is limited at present.
Accidental overhaul of some PX devices in Asia
Asian PX devices are dynamic, and accidental overhauls at the supply side are increasing. Zhejiang Sinopec restructuring problem PX negative expected two weeks, Fuhua disproportionation impact PX line expected to overhaul 4 weeks, Fuhai overhaul. In terms of overseas installations, South Korea's SKGC and Japan continued to overhaul, while India's Reliance fell slightly.
PX internal and external price difference, PTA disk processing fee and monthly difference remain stable.
Affected by delivery, the inner disk is weak. PX spot-07 internal and external price spread widened to 290ta TA09 disk processing fees held stable near 3300.The PX9-1 month difference strengthened to Pingshui.
PX balance sheet
PX maintenance accidents increased, the balance slightly improved, short-term bad relief, maintenance accidents increased, pay attention to seasonal improvement.
The PX device is dynamic, and the accidental maintenance at the supply side is increasing. Daxie overhaul cancelled, Zhejiang Petrochemical restructuring problem PX negative expected two weeks, Fuhua disproportionation impact PX a line is expected to overhaul 4 weeks, Fuhai overhaul. In terms of overseas installations, South Korea's SKGC and Japan continued to overhaul, while India's Reliance fell slightly.
From a balance point of view, the unexpected overhaul of PX increases, and the balance is expected to continue to improve, focusing on seasonal improvement in the short term.
Slight repair of the profit of the industrial chain
This week PX- crude oil price difference slightly fixed, macro improvement, PX overhaul increased, PXN slightly repaired, PTA processing fee neutral, drive general.
EG can pick up the goods at present, pay attention to the port inventory
Ethylene glycol load decreased slightly
The overall load of MEG is reduced, and the operating rate of coal production is high. As of May 17, the total load of ethylene glycol was 58.3%, and the coal load was 63.55%. The overhaul of some integrated devices has been delayed, the overhaul of coal system has increased, and the load has decreased slightly.
The overhaul quantity of domestic equipment is not low.
The ethylene glycol plant is dynamic, and the maintenance quantity of the plant is not low. Zhenhai and Zhejiang Petrochemical are expected to be overhauled from June to the end of June, Fuling is delayed and the satellite is reduced, and Sinopec Refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. restarts as planned. Coal system, Weihua restart, Haoyuan negative, Hubei Sanning technical transformation is expected to switch to synthetic ammonia, Tongliao, Henan energy, Jianyuan, extended maintenance.
The overhaul quantity in May is on the high side, and the output in June is expected to be lower than the previous forecast.
Slight repair of the benefits of mainstream process
The mainstream supply of ethylene glycol is slightly repaired, the oil system maintains a loss, and the coal system makes a slight profit.
The overhaul of overseas equipment has increased slightly.
Ethylene glycol outer disk dynamics, Taiwan China Fiber plans to stop for one month in June, LG Dashan began to switch to EO production in May, the United States Lotte 700000 tons of parking, the United States and South Asia has not yet been restarted.
According to the General Administration of Customs, ethylene glycol imported 624000 tons, exported 10, 000 tons and net imported 614000 tons in April. Imports were on the high side in April, and imports were estimated to be 58 or 550000 tons from May to June.
Picking up the goods is OK, and the port inventory has rebounded steadily.
From the point of view of the arrival volume, it is estimated that 93000 tons will arrive at the port from May 13 to May 19, but the actual arrival will be 128000 tons. The actual arrival at the port is not low, and it is OK to pick up the goods downstream.
As of May 20, the inventory of MEG port in the main port area of East China was about 791000 tons, an increase of 22000 tons compared with the previous month.
The total amount of goods arriving is expected to be around 139000 tons, the arrival at the port is not low, the downstream pick-up is expected to be maintained, and the port is expected to maintain stability or a small accumulation of storage.
The preparation time of ethylene glycol raw materials in polyester plant is 11 minutes and 8 days, and the stock of downstream raw materials is neutral.
Ethylene glycol balance sheet
Ethylene glycol port can pick up goods, inventory is not high, domestic supply maintenance has been extended, polyester production has been reduced, the balance between May and June is still tight, short-term attention is low and many opportunities, the upper space is limited.
On the supply side, the maintenance volume of the plant is not low, Zhenhai and Zhejiang Petrochemical are expected to be extended to June to the end of June, Fuzhou Refinery is delayed to restart, the satellite has been reduced, and Sinopec Refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. restarts as planned. Coal system, Weihua restart, Haoyuan negative, Hubei Sanning technical transformation is expected to switch to synthetic ammonia, Tongliao, Henan energy, Jianyuan, extended maintenance. Outer disk, Taiwan China Fiber plans to stop in June for one month, LG Dashan began to switch to EO production in May, the United States Lotte 700000 tons of parking, the United States and South Asia has not yet been restarted.
On the demand side, the weaving operation rate downstream of the seasonal off-season decreased slightly, the polyester boiler retrofit + reduced production, the load decreased to 88.5%, the load assessment dropped to 89% in May, and 88% is expected in June.
From a balanced point of view, supply has extended maintenance, negative demand, balance is expected to go to the warehouse slightly, the current port inventory is not high, short-term attention is low and many opportunities, the upper space is limited.
Price difference structure
The PTA base difference and monthly difference are stable.
Ethylene glycol base difference and monthly difference improved slightly.
Distant moon structure
Author: Liu Siqi
Employment qualification certificate number: F3083559
Trading enquiry certificate number: Z0016260
