playstationhomearcade| [Research Report Nuggets] Institutions: Pig prices or turning points have now focused on industrial chain opportunities

The agency pointed out that the current inflection point of pig prices has appeared, and under the background of the continuation of high levels, pig prices are expected to rise with a low slope in April and May. In the second half of 2024, it is expected that as the impact of producer behavior is digested and the capacity gap is realized, the upward trend of the cycle will be clearer, and the future cycle will be considerable.PlaystationhomearcadeThe height and duration of the boom.

Core logic

onePlaystationhomearcade. If the pig price is reduced to a low level, the periodic pressure on pig price is more conducive to the reversal of the cycle in the second half of 2024. According to the Ministry of Agriculture and villages, as of the end of March 2024PlaystationhomearcadeChina can reproduce 39.92 million columns, and the range of de-production has reached 9% since the peak in December 2022.Playstationhomearcade.1% (8.5% of the last round of elimination), the capacity column has reached a new low since 2021. Since the end of February 2024, the pig price is not weak in the off-season, and the elimination rate of sows in the industry as a whole decreases. With the rise of parity of sows and the disturbance of non-plague to the production rhythm of sows, it is expected that the production performance of sows in China tends to decline in 2024.

two。 Attach importance to the large cycle and face up to the existing cumulative extent of elimination and the current situation of losses. It has been more than one year since the current round of capacity elimination, and the cumulative maximum removal range of the Ministry of Agriculture / Yongyi Consulting is 11% 12% respectively (as of March 2024). The number of breeding stocks of the Ministry of Agriculture has reached the lowest level since 2021. In view of the fact that the cumulative maximum removal rate of the Ministry of Agriculture / Yongyi Consulting in the last cycle (2021-2022) is 9% / 15% respectively (corresponding to the high pig price in 2022 cycle 28 yuan / kg+). And ternary sow elimination optimization greatly makes up for the actual capacity elimination in 2021, and the removal efficiency of this round has not increased significantly, so it is expected that this round of capacity elimination may be enough to support the large cycle reversal.

3. From the relative changes of pork production and pig production, the decline of pork production is significantly lower than that of the number of leaders, reflecting that the average weight of the industry is still on the rise. Combined with the number of pigs and pork production in the first quarter of 2021-2024, it can be found that the average post-slaughter weight of pigs in the first quarter of 2024 has far exceeded the average value of previous years. And since April, the pig has been gradually released, and the average weight has continued to rise, which may suppress the short-term pig price performance. Judging from the current inventory situation, the national pig stock in the first quarter of 2024 was 408.5 million, a decrease of 22.44 million, or 5.2%, compared with the same period last year; a month-on-month decrease of 25.72 million, or 5.9%, has reached the lowest level since the fourth quarter of 2020. From the point of view of the stock of large pigs, the stock of medium and large pigs in large-scale farms across the country dropped by 3% at the end of March compared with the same period last year, corresponding to the continued decline in the number of live pigs within two months. Combined with stock and average weight, it is speculated that the average weight in April and May may remain at a high level, but the contraction trend of pork supply remains unchanged, and there is little room for short-term callback of pig prices.

Be good for individual stocks

Huatai Securities believes that the off-season is coming to an end, paying attention to the reversal of the cycle with a high degree of cash. At the same time, under the background of cash flow pressure, the capacity removal of sows is expected to continue, which is expected to drive the cycle reversal height and persistence higher than expected. It is suggested to actively layout the aquaculture plate. Focus on the cost and capital barriers of Muyuan shares (002714), Shennong Group, superstar agriculture and animal husbandry, Wen shares (300498) and so on.

Everbright Securities pointed out that it focuses on recommending Muyuan shares and Wen shares, which have sound operation and obvious scale advantages, and Shennong Group, which has flexibility and cost advantages. At the same time, it is suggested to pay attention to Huatong shares (002840), superstar agriculture and animal husbandry, new Wufeng (600975). Post-cycle plate, pig price reversal will boost feed, animal protection demand, valuation repair plate will start upward. White feather broiler plate, chicken prices after the peak season rose to maintain high, the current valuation is low, still recommended configuration, it is recommended to pay attention to probiotics shares (002458), Shengnong Development (002299).