Summary of events: the company released its quarterly report of 2024 for the quarter in which the company achieved operating income 8Bouncingball8net.0 billion yuanBouncingball8net, same increase 3%, ring decrease 23%; return mother net profit 160 million yuan, decrease 21%, ring decrease 36%; deduct non-return net profit 160 million yuan, decrease 19%, ring decrease 37%; gross profit 31.78%, minus 4.6pcts, ring minus 8.7pcts. The IGBT industry is out of the shortage period, and the company's performance slows down. The IGBT industry is expected to come out of the shortage period in 2024. 20H2 with the global automotive "lack of core", the IGBT industry continues to face a shortage situation. According to DIGITIMES Research,2022, due to strong demand for new energy vehicles and photovoltaic, the gap between global IGBT supply and demand reached 13.6%. The gap narrowed to-2.5% in 2023 as the industry's supply expanded. With the continuous release of supply-side production capacity, the global IGBT industry is expected to come out of the shortage cycle in 2024. As the leader of domestic IGBT, the revenue growth rate slows down, while the gross profit margin is adjusted due to changes in industry supply and demand, which brings profit pressure. SiC business grows rapidly, production capacity continues to hit the ground 1) in 2023, the company used in the new energy vehicle main controller of the vehicle specification-level SiC MOSFET module loading application in large quantities, while adding a number of 800V system main motor controller using the vehicle specification-level SiC MOSFET module fixed-point project, will provide a continuous driving force for the company's 24-30 main controller vehicle specification-level SiC MOSFET module sales growth 2) the company's independent vehicle specification-grade SiC MOSFET chips have been verified by a number of customers on the company's vehicle power module packaging platforms and began to ship in batches; 3) the company and Shenzhen Blue Automobile jointly established Chongqing Anda Semiconductor Co., Ltd., to develop and produce high-performance and reliable vehicle specification-grade IGBT modules and SiC MOSFET modules, which is expected to complete plant construction and start production in 2024. The demand for new energy industry is still growing, and the fixed-point contribution performance of models 1) with the rebound of the prosperity of the industry, the demand for power semiconductors in areas such as smart grid and new energy vehicles will increase significantly. According to the China Business Industrial Research Institute, China's power semiconductor market is expected to reach 175.26 billion yuan in 2024, an increase of 15.3%. 2) from 2022 to 2023, the company's car specification-level IGBT module was designated by a number of international first-tier brands Tier1 and began to be delivered on a large scale, and a new number of main motor controller projects were designated. The company's 1200V gauge-level IGBT module based on the seventh generation micro-groove Trench Field Stop technology adds a number of 800V system models of the main motor controller project fixed point, and with the fixed point and mass volume of the SiC MOSFET module, it is expected to provide a continuous driving force for the company's performance growth in 2024. Investment recommendations in view of the pressure on the company's 24Q1 performance, we update our profit forecast for 2024-26 to 1.53 billion yuan (the original forecast is 1.779 billion yuan), corresponding to the PE of 23-19-16. In view of the company's leading position in the field of new energy, the company is expected to fully benefit from the revenue growth brought about by the targeting of early models. Maintain a "buy" rating. The risk indicates that the industry boom is not as expected, the R & D progress is not as expected, the capacity climbing is not as expected, and the risk of untimely updating of information data is studied and reported. [disclaimer] this article only represents the views of a third party and does not represent the position of Hexun. Investors operate accordingly, at their own risk.
[disclaimer] this article only represents the views of a third party and does not represent the position of Hexun. Investors operate accordingly, at their own risk.
