"Thunder" is not contagiousAccidentgameXiao Peng rarely made it.
Source: dolphins for research
The gross profit margin of Xiaopeng car sales can finally look up: the gross margin in the first quarter seems to be only 5%.Accidentgame.5%, but it is actually because the contract loss of less than 500 million has been set aside for P5, which is actually close to 9%.
Xiaopeng Motor released its financial results for the first quarter of 2024 after the Hong Kong stock market and before the US stock market on May 21, 2024, Beijing time. Compared with the ideal triple thunder last night, Xiaopeng was shot by nearly 11 points. But the result is good, Xiaopeng's market value has been fully into the pessimistic expectations, but there is a little bit of luck:
1) the gross profit margin of car sales can finally look up: the gross profit margin in the first quarter seems to be only 5.5%, which is only a little more than one percentage point from the previous quarter, but in fact, it is because the contract loss of less than 500 million has been set aside for P5. The gross profit margin of car sales, which is about 3.2 percentage points, is actually close to 9%.
This higher-than-expected gross margin performance, on the one hand, shows that through the X9 small test Niudao in the car price progress has achieved some results. In addition, it is also because the price reduction of the main selling models G6, G9 and P7 in the first quarter basically occurred in early March, which had little impact on the gross profit margin in the first quarter.
2) Volkswagen's cooperation has finally been accounted for: the overall Xiaopeng gross profit margin has reached 13% even taking into account contract losses, which still significantly exceeds market expectations. This is mainly because the R & D revenue of cooperation with Volkswagen (there will be fees for the use of car-building platforms, intelligent driving services, etc.) is also accounted for, which leads to other income exceeding market expectations, and because this kind of income is basically pure profit. Gross margins for other businesses rose directly from 38% in the previous quarter to 54% in a straight line.
3) the unit price has gone up: the expected bicycle sales revenue in the market is less than 250000, but it is actually 254000, which should be mainly due to the fact that the X9 suddenly accounted for 36% of the sales in the first quarter from 0 to 36% in the first quarter. Xiaopeng has been hoping for the price to bring up finally a little hope, the original G9 did not do things, this year through the X9 to do.
4) expenses have gone down: Xiaopeng's R & D expenses are still relatively rigid, but the company has fully passed that it will increase R & D costs in 2024, which actually has not increased significantly, but the sales volume in the first quarter should be too poor. Xiaopeng's R & D expenses have not been greatly raised.
On the other hand, the sales and administrative expenses have shown great restraint because they have reduced the car sales commission for franchisees, and the control of advertising and other expenses under low sales.
5) operating loss of nearly 1.7 billion: far better than the market's loss of close to 2.4 billion, especially considering that there are still 480 million contract losses in this quarter, the real loss should be about 11-1.2 billion less than the market expected.
Dolphin research viewpoint:
After a long period of bottom-out and sales exposure, the $8 billion Xiaopeng has partly priced the market's pessimistic expectations. Compared with the ideal of having $23 billion after the crash, it is actually easy to reveal the "wealth" of the family.
As a result, Xiaopeng's product prices have moved up because of X9, and a series of operations such as cooperation with international car factories have gradually made Xiaopeng come out of the trough of poor sales and worse profits, and at the same time, through more stringent dealer management, there are also some signs of improvement at the expense end.
Of course, in terms of current sales, Xiaopeng is still the one obviously lagging behind. The current weekly sales of 2000-2200 is not enough to complete the company's implied monthly sales of 1-11000 vehicles per month in the second quarter of the second quarter. It needs to be raised to 2500 before there is any hope.
In addition, the gross profit margin of cars in the second quarter is also likely to come under pressure again: 1) on the one hand, the proportion of X9 sales continues to decline, and now it is below 20%; 2) the average price reduction of more than 7% of the main selling models G6, 9 and P7 in March, and about 5% of the G6, 9 and P5 in April, which will inevitably lead to the pressure on sales again.
In this case, the "contractual impairment of the P5 due to bullish demand for upcoming models" in the first quarter seems to be more about smoothing gross margins so that second-quarter gross margins don't seem to fall so much.
So on the whole, Dolphin King's evaluation of Xiaopeng's car is still based on full pessimistic expectations. Only when Xiaopeng can really pull up car sales will it be possible to usher in a real reversal. In the short term, this hope still depends on the MONA of the third quarter.
The following is the text
Xiaopeng's gross profit margin in this quarter is still "small and bright".
As Xiaopeng's weak sales in the first quarter have been announced, this financial report, investors are more concerned about the gross profit margin of this quarter.
The gross profit margin of Xiaopeng automobile business in the first quarter was 5.5%, slightly lower than the 5.9% expected by the market. However, the inventory impairment and purchase contract losses of the old model P5 are still included in this quarter, which is a 3.2% drag on the gross profit margin of the car sales business, and the gross profit margin of the car sales business that actually removes the impact reached 8.7%. Compared with the previous quarter, the actual gross profit margin of car sales continued to rise by 2.7%, mainly contributed by the high gross margin X9 delivered in the first quarter.
Next, Mr. Dolphin will start with the price and cost of the bike to dismantle Xiaopeng's still good gross profit margin this quarter:
A) average price per bike: the structure of the car model has been improved by 51000 yuan compared with the previous year.
The average price of a bike in the first quarter was 254000 yuan, and the average price per car was 51000 yuan higher than that in the fourth quarter of last year, exceeding the 233000 yuan estimated by Dolphin in Xiaopeng's guidance in the previous quarter and 248000 expected by the market.
Although Xiaopeng began a new round of price cuts in March due to off-season sales and intensified competition, the price of P7i was reduced by 20,000 yuan to 50,000 yuan (down 8-15%), G6 by 20,000 yuan (down 7-10%), and G9 by 0.5-10,000 yuan (down 1.4% by 4%). But the price reduction mainly started in March, and the impact is only partly included in the first quarter sales.
However, the increase in the unit price in the first quarter was mainly due to the improvement in the sales structure of the model. Xiaopeng's higher unit price X9 (priced 359800-419800) was delivered in January, accounting for 36% of the sales in the current quarter, and finally pushed up the unit price in the first quarter.
B) Bicycle cost: the decline in sales volume and the increase in the proportion of high manufacturing cost X9 drive up bicycle cost
The actual cost of bicycles in the first quarter (excluding the impact of P5 contract losses) was 232000 yuan, and the cost of bicycles increased by 41000 yuan compared with the previous quarter. Dolphin Jun believes that it is mainly due to
1. In the first quarter, the sales volume decreased by 64% to 22000 vehicles compared with the previous quarter, the utilization rate of production capacity decreased, and the amortized cost of bicycles rose from the previous quarter.
2. High manufacturing cost X9 began delivery this quarter, accounting for 36%, driving up manufacturing costs
3. The price of lithium carbonate has basically stabilized in the first quarter, and its contribution to the cost side is limited this year.
In the end, the cost of the bike was 41000 yuan higher than the previous month.
C) gross profit of bicycle: 10,000 yuan higher than the previous month
The average price of a bike went up 51000 yuan, and the cost of a bike went up 40, 000 yuan. In the last quarter, for every car sold, the gross profit was 22000 yuan. Compared with the actual gross profit of 12000 yuan in the previous quarter, it continued to go up 10, 000 yuan from the previous quarter, and the real gross profit margin on car sales rose to 8.7% in this quarter compared with the previous quarter.
The sales volume in the second quarter is slightly higher than the market expectation.
A) car sales target for the second quarter: 2.9-32000 vehicles, slightly exceeding market expectations of 25-30 000 vehicles
Xiaopeng's sales and orders have continued to decline since the beginning of the year, as demand for overdrafts to cover full-year sales in the fourth quarter of last year, and the competitiveness of Xiaopeng models began to decline with competitors' pricing.
At present, the main model G6 faces competition from BYD's new Song L, and the P7 is also under pressure from the new extreme Krypton 001 / extreme Krypton 007 and Xiaomi SU7. Orders and sales are weak, and Xiaopeng is forced to cut prices under the pressure of falling sales and orders.
Xiaopeng started a new round of price cuts in March and April, while the sales guidance of 2.9-32000 vehicles in the second quarter was slightly higher than market expectations of 2.5-30 million vehicles. Since April sales are known, it implies that the average monthly sales in May / June should be close to 1-11000 vehicles. As weekly sales have been weak, the latest weekly sales only reached 2000 vehicles. What the market is most concerned about is whether the price reduction can lead to the recovery of Xiaopeng's monthly sales. at present, the monthly sales implied in the sales guidelines mean that the price reduction has a good warming and promoting effect on sales.
B) the second quarter revenue guidance implies a downward price per unit, which is basically in line with market expectations
Xiaopeng's revenue guidance for the second quarter is 7.5 billion to 8.3 billion. Estimated according to other income of 970 million, the unit price corresponding to the guidance for the second quarter is about 227000 yuan, compared with the 27000 yuan in the current quarter, which is the same as the market's expected unit price.
Due to the impact of the price reduction in March, the unit price decline in the second quarter will be brought directly into the second quarter. At the same time, due to intensified competition, the continued weakness in sales began to reduce the price of its G6/G9/P5 by 0.7 to 15000 yuan, a price reduction of 4% to 5%, which negatively affected the unit price in the second quarter.
At the same time, from the high-frequency weekly sales structure, due to the limited space in the pure electricity market, although the performance-to-price ratio of X9 is still good compared with competitive models, sales have also begun to be weak. In April, the proportion of X9 fell to 21% from a peak of 44% in March, and the share of weekly sales continued to decline to 16% in the latest week, which means that the proportion of X9 in the vehicle structure will also decline month-on-month in the second quarter. Finally, the unit price contained in the income guidelines fell by 27000 yuan to 227000 yuan compared with the current quarter.
The bike price of 227000 yuan means that the gross profit margin in the second quarter is basically 8.7% lower than the real gross profit margin in the current quarter. Dolphin Jun expects the gross profit margin to fall back to 3-5% in the second quarter.
Third, the overall income and gross profit margin are higher than market expectations
In the first quarter, Xiaopeng achieved a total income of 6.55 billion, which was 6.16 billion higher than the market expectation, and achieved a comprehensive gross profit margin of 12.9%, which was 10% higher than the market expectation.
A) Automobile sales revenue: 5.54 billion of auto sales revenue in the current quarter, the unit price is higher than market expectations
In terms of volume, the first-quarter delivery volume was 22000, down 64% from the previous quarter, which is basically in the first quarter guidance of 22000-22500 given in the previous financial report, which is in line with market expectations, mainly due to the weak sales caused by the competitive pressure on the off-season plus the main model G6/P7/G9.
In terms of price, as the pure electric MPV X9 (priced 35.98-419800), which is the highest priced model in Xiaopeng, accounts for 36% of the sales structure, the unit price in the first quarter is higher, and the unit price in the last quarter is up 50, 000 from the previous quarter.
In the end, Xiaopeng earned 5.54 billion from car sales, 5.4 billion higher than market expectations.
B) Services and others: fees for technological research and development services in cooperation with the public drive up income and gross profit margins
This quarter, service other income was 1 billion, higher than market expectations of 800 million, and other business gross profit margin reached 54%, exceeding market expectations of 37%. Mainly because Xiaopeng calculated the revenue of technological research and development services in cooperation with the public this quarter, which is basically consistent with the income increase of nearly 100 million expected by Dolphin Jun, and this part of the gross profit margin is close to 100%. It directly drives up Xiaopeng's other business and comprehensive gross profit margin.
Fourth, R & D expenses continue to be rigid, and the pressure drop of sales expenses is relatively large.
Xiaopeng automobile positioning takes intelligence as its core competitiveness, and it is doomed to continuously increase research and development in intelligence to form and consolidate its advantages. at the same time, the company is also deepening channel reform. continue to use "direct marketing + authorization" dual-mode channel to find the balance between marketing cost and efficiency.
In this quarter, R & D expenses continue to be rigid, but the pressure drop of sales administrative expenses is relatively large.
1) R & D cost 1.35 billion, continue to be rigid
Judging from the situation in this quarter, Xiaopeng's R & D spending reached 1.35 billion, up 40 million from the previous quarter, but lower than market expectations of 1.51 billion.
Xiaopeng R & D expenses are mainly invested in intelligence and new model research and development. In intelligence, Xiaopeng takes intelligence as its core competitiveness, so it is difficult to reduce R & D costs.
The management plans to reduce the cost of the XNGP by 50% through technological innovation this year, so that the XNGP can be successfully carried on the A-class model "Mona" priced at 10-150000, which will successfully roll the smart car into the track below 150000, creating the core competitiveness of the 100-150,000-class model. Mona will be launched in the second quarter, and delivery will begin in the third quarter, and R & D expenses are expected to increase month-on-month in the second quarter.
For the whole of 24 years, the R & D expenditure given by Xiaopeng is estimated to be between 70 and 7.5 billion, of which the total R & D investment in "AI technology with intelligent driving as the core" amounts to 3.5 billion yuan, and the follow-up R & D expenditure is expected to continue to rise.
2) the channel adjustment and the rebate pressure drop to the distributor make the sales cost pressure drop greatly.
Sales and administrative expenses reached 1.39 billion in this quarter, down 550 million in absolute terms from the previous quarter, lower than market expectations of 1.48 billion.
Xiaopeng launched the channel reform program of Project Jupiter last quarter, increasing the proportion of authorized stores, expanding the sinking market rapidly by expanding the distribution model, expanding the coverage of stores in low-line cities, and preparing for the launch of the "Mona" low-cost model.
In the first quarter, the number of stores increased by 74. However, due to the drop in sales rebates paid to dealers and the control of advertising and other advertising costs despite low sales volume, the final drop in sales and management expenses was large this quarter.
The operating loss for this quarter was 1.7 billion yuan, far better than the market's loss of nearly 2.4 billion yuan. Especially considering that there was still a contract loss of 480 million yuan accrued this quarter, the real loss should be about 1.1 - 1.2 billion yuan less than market expectations, mainly due to the fact that the gross profit exceeded expectations and the pressure drop in sales management expenses was large.
Risk warnings and exemption clauses
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